Craig Turnbull, a Fellow of the Faculty of Actuaries is a leading scholar-practitioner of our generation. He will be presenting his latest work ‘Some Notes on the Methodology of Actuarial Science” at a Casualty Actuarial Society webinar on 1st December. He draws a thread from the philosophical theories of probability to more contemporary thinking in social sciences, economics and onto the methodology of actuarial practice.
Craig Turnbull wrote A History of British Actuarial Thought, which catalogues our proud history comprehensively, and more importantly the procrastination of the IFoA in our response to advances in financial economics.
We must not repeat this reticence at this inflexion point of uncertainty. The uncertainty as articulated by George Shackle, Frank Knight and Amar Bhide has now come to the foreground. Judgement does not rest on epistemological truths – which by definition seeks certainty.
These discussions are hugely important as they go directly to the soul of our profession. Let us encourage independent thinkers to come forward and stimulate debate within and outside the IFoA.